美聯(lián)儲主席鮑威爾：6月只是暫緩加息，大多數(shù)FOMC成員支持進(jìn)一步加息
美聯(lián)儲主席鮑威爾：6月只是暫緩加息，大多數(shù)FOMC成員支持進(jìn)一步加息
美聯(lián)儲主席鮑威爾周三重申，未來可能會有更多的加息，直到在降低通脹方面取得更多進(jìn)展。
當(dāng)?shù)貢r(shí)間周三，他在向眾議院金融服務(wù)委員會提交的證詞中，再次強(qiáng)調(diào)6月暫緩加息只是臨時(shí)的舉措，并不代表美聯(lián)儲已經(jīng)完成加息。
他表示：
"幾乎所有FOMC參與者都預(yù)計(jì)，應(yīng)該在年底前進(jìn)一步提高利率。"
鮑威爾認(rèn)為，通貨膨脹雖然已經(jīng)降溫，但"仍然遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于"美聯(lián)儲2%的目標(biāo)，說明美聯(lián)儲仍有許多工作要做。
他表示：
"自去年年中以來，通貨膨脹已經(jīng)有所緩和，盡管如此，通脹壓力仍然很高，讓通脹率回落到2%的過程還有很長的路要走。"
美聯(lián)儲官員通常更關(guān)注不包含視頻和能源價(jià)格的核心通脹指標(biāo)。4月份，美國核心CPI小幅下降0.1%至4.7%，但5月數(shù)據(jù)又回升至5.3%，表明通脹粘性較高。
鮑威爾還表示，美國勞動力市場依然火熱，開放的工作崗位數(shù)量仍然遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過了可用的勞動力儲備。
此外，鮑威爾強(qiáng)調(diào)稱，利率決議將根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)逐次做出，并不存在預(yù)設(shè)的路線。
“新美聯(lián)儲通訊社”Nick Timiraos表示，美聯(lián)儲主席鮑威爾向國會準(zhǔn)備的證詞與上周新聞發(fā)布會上的開場白相比，幾乎沒有新的措辭。
以下為鮑威爾向美國眾議院提交的證詞全文：
【中文版】
美聯(lián)儲主席鮑威爾向美國眾議院金融服務(wù)委員會提交的半年度貨幣政策報(bào)告
主席麥克亨利、議員沃特斯女士以及委員會其他成員，感謝您們給予我機(jī)會介紹美聯(lián)儲的半年度貨幣政策報(bào)告。
我們美聯(lián)儲始終專注于實(shí)現(xiàn)我們的雙重使命，即促進(jìn)美國民眾的最大就業(yè)和穩(wěn)定物價(jià)。我和我的同事們理解高通脹所帶來的困難，并堅(jiān)決致力于將通脹率降至2%的目標(biāo)水平。物價(jià)穩(wěn)定是美聯(lián)儲的責(zé)任，沒有物價(jià)穩(wěn)定，經(jīng)濟(jì)就無法為任何人提供幫助。特別是在沒有物價(jià)穩(wěn)定的情況下，我們無法實(shí)現(xiàn)持久的有利于所有人的強(qiáng)勁勞動力市場狀況。
在討論貨幣政策之前，我將回顧當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢。
當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢和展望
去年美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長顯著放緩，最近的指標(biāo)表明經(jīng)濟(jì)活動仍在以溫和的速度擴(kuò)張。盡管今年消費(fèi)支出增長有所加快，但住房市場活動仍疲軟，主要原因是抵押利率上升。較高的利率和較慢的產(chǎn)出增長似乎也對企業(yè)固定投資產(chǎn)生了壓力。
勞動力市場仍然非常緊張。今年前五個(gè)月，每月的就業(yè)增加平均達(dá)到了強(qiáng)勁的31.4萬個(gè)就業(yè)崗位。失業(yè)率在5月上升，但仍然保持在3.7%的低水平。勞動力市場的供需有一些跡象表明正在趨于更好的平衡。勞動參與率近幾個(gè)月有所上升，尤其是25至54歲的人群。名義工資增長有些放緩，今年迄今為止職位空缺也有所下降。雖然就業(yè)-工人之間的缺口已經(jīng)縮小，但勞動需求仍然大大超過了可用工人的供應(yīng)。
通脹率仍遠(yuǎn)高于我們2%的長期目標(biāo)。截至4月份的12個(gè)月內(nèi)，個(gè)人消費(fèi)支出價(jià)格總指數(shù)（PCE）上漲了4.4%；在排除食品和能源等波動較大的類別后，核心PCE價(jià)格上漲了4.7%。5月份，消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)（CPI）的12個(gè)月變化率為4.0%，核心CPI變化率為5.3%。通脹壓力從去年年中以來有所緩解。盡管如此，通脹壓力仍然很高，將通脹率降至2%的過程還有很長的路要走。盡管通脹率較高，但長期通脹預(yù)期似乎保持良好，這體現(xiàn)在家庭、企業(yè)和預(yù)測者的廣泛調(diào)查以及金融市場的指標(biāo)中。
貨幣政策
由于通脹率仍遠(yuǎn)高于我們2%的長期目標(biāo)，并且勞動力市場狀況仍然緊張，美聯(lián)儲公開市場委員會（FOMC）大幅收緊了貨幣政策立場。自去年初以來，我們已將政策利率上調(diào)了5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，并繼續(xù)以快節(jié)奏減少我們的證券持倉。我們已經(jīng)看到我們的緊縮政策對經(jīng)濟(jì)中最受利率敏感的部門的需求產(chǎn)生了影響。然而，對于貨幣緊縮的全部影響，尤其是對通脹的影響，需要時(shí)間才能實(shí)現(xiàn)。
經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨著家庭和企業(yè)信貸條件收緊的阻力，這可能對經(jīng)濟(jì)活動、就業(yè)和通脹產(chǎn)生影響。這些影響的程度仍不確定。
考慮到我們在緊縮貨幣政策方面取得的進(jìn)展、貨幣政策對經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響滯后的不確定性以及信貸緊縮可能帶來的阻力，上周FOMC決定將聯(lián)邦基金利率目標(biāo)區(qū)間維持在5%至5?%之間，并繼續(xù)大幅減少我們的證券持倉。幾乎所有FOMC參與者預(yù)計(jì)，到年底時(shí)適當(dāng)?shù)募酉⒎葘⑦M(jìn)一步增加。但在上周的會議上，考慮到我們的行動幅度和速度，我們認(rèn)為穩(wěn)定利率目標(biāo)區(qū)間是明智的，以便讓委員會評估額外信息及其對貨幣政策的影響。在確定可能適合長期將通脹率回歸2%的額外貨幣政策調(diào)整程度時(shí)，我們將考慮貨幣政策的累積緊縮、貨幣政策對經(jīng)濟(jì)活動和通脹的影響滯后以及經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融發(fā)展。我們將繼續(xù)根據(jù)全部新數(shù)據(jù)及其對經(jīng)濟(jì)活動和通脹前景以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)平衡的影響，逐次進(jìn)行決策。
我們致力于將通脹率降至2%的目標(biāo)水平，并保持長期通脹預(yù)期保持良好。降低通脹可能需要一個(gè)低于趨勢增長水平的時(shí)期和勞動力市場狀況的柔化?；謴?fù)價(jià)格穩(wěn)定對于實(shí)現(xiàn)最大就業(yè)和長期穩(wěn)定的物價(jià)至關(guān)重要。
在結(jié)束之前，讓我簡要談一下銀行業(yè)的狀況。美國銀行體系健康且具有韌性。正如6月貨幣政策報(bào)告中關(guān)于金融穩(wěn)定的內(nèi)容所述，美聯(lián)儲與財(cái)政部和聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司在3月采取了果斷行動，以保護(hù)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)并增強(qiáng)公眾對我們銀行體系的信心。最近的銀行倒閉，包括硅谷銀行的倒閉以及由此產(chǎn)生的銀行壓力，凸顯了確保我們擁有適當(dāng)?shù)囊?guī)則和監(jiān)管做法以應(yīng)對這些規(guī)模的銀行的重要性。我們致力于解決這些脆弱性，以建立一個(gè)更強(qiáng)大和更有彈性的銀行體系。
我們明白我們的行動影響著全國各地的社區(qū)、家庭和企業(yè)。我們所做的一切都是為了履行我們的公共使命。美聯(lián)儲將竭盡全力實(shí)現(xiàn)我們的最大就業(yè)和物價(jià)穩(wěn)定目標(biāo)。
謝謝。我很樂意回答您的問題。
【英文版】
Chairman McHenry, Ranking Member Waters, and other members of the Committee, I appreciate the opportunity to present the Federal Reserve's semiannualMonetary Policy Report.
We at the Fed remain squarely focused on our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. My colleagues and I understand the hardship that high inflation is causing, and we remain strongly committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2 percent goal. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve, and without it, the economy does not work for anyone. In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.
I will review the current economic situation before turning to monetary policy.
Current Economic Situation and Outlook
The U.S. economy slowed significantly last year, and recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a modest pace. Although growth in consumer spending has picked up this year, activity in the housing sector remains weak, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates. Higher interest rates and slower output growth also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment.
The labor market remains very tight. Over the first five months of the year, job gains averaged a robust 314,000 jobs per month. The unemployment rate moved up but remained low in May, at 3.7 percent. There are some signs that supply and demand in the labor market are coming into better balance. The labor force participation rate has moved up in recent months, particularly for individuals aged 25 to 54. Nominal wage growth has shown some signs of easing, and job vacancies have declined so far this year. While the jobs-to-workers gap has narrowed, labor demand still substantially exceeds the supply of available workers.1
Inflation remains well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent. Over the 12 months ending in April, total personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices rose 4.4 percent; excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 4.7 percent. In May, the 12-month change in the consumer price index (CPI) came in at 4.0 percent, and the change in the core CPI was 5.3 percent. Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year. Nonetheless, inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2 percent has a long way to go. Despite elevated inflation, longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets.
Monetary Policy
With inflation remaining well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent and with labor market conditions remaining tight, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has significantly tightened the stance of monetary policy. We have raised our policy interest rate by 5 percentage points since early last year and have continued to reduce our securities holdings at a brisk pace.2We have been seeing the effects of our policy tightening on demand in the most interest rate–sensitive sectors of the economy. It will take time, however, for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation.
The economy is facing headwinds from tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, which are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation.3The extent of these effects remains uncertain.
In light of how far we have come in tightening policy, the uncertain lags with which monetary policy affects the economy, and potential headwinds from credit tightening, the FOMC decided last week to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5 to 5-1/4 percent and to continue the process of significantly reducing our securities holdings. Nearly all FOMC participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year. But at last week's meeting, considering how far and how fast we have moved, we judged it prudent to hold the target range steady to allow the Committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, we will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting, based on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation, as well as the balance of risks.
We remain committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2 percent goal and to keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below-trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions. Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run.
Before concluding, let me briefly address the condition of the banking sector. The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. As detailed in the box on financial stability in the June Monetary Policy Report, the Federal Reserve, together with the Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, took decisive action in March to protect the U.S. economy and to strengthen public confidence in our banking system. The recent bank failures, including the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, and the resulting banking stress have highlighted the importance of ensuring we have the appropriate rules and supervisory practices for banks of this size. We are committed to addressing these vulnerabilities to make for a stronger and more resilient banking system.
We understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals.
Thank you. I am happy to take your questions.
